Obviously, the big news story for November is the U.S. Presidential Election. So we thought it would be interesting to review the impact of the key political issues Americans are facing in the election, and their impact on the mobile home park industry. These are our thoughts.
Increase in personal income taxes
Clinton has been vocal in her desire to raise income taxes on America’s most wealthy. Based on the demographics of mobile home parks, this is not an issue. Even the trickle-down theory will be limited, as most mobile home park residents are not employed in the yachting or high-end watch industries. Neither Trump nor Clinton are proposing higher taxes on low-income Americans, so the only sector of housing that is sweating this election are McMansion builders.
Increase in capital gains tax
This will have an impact, if Clinton is elected. The end result is that there will be a huge number of mom and pop park owners who will rush to sell their parks before this is enacted. Nobody knows for sure the exact plan that Clinton will implement – or if she can get it through Congress – but just the thought will send many older sellers, who were on the fence, heading for the exit doors. This should actually create a good buying opportunity.
Immigration
This has been one area that Trump has been very vocal in, with the talk about building a wall on the Mexican border, and deporting illegal immigrants. However, we think this was all boast and has zero chance for implementation if Trump is elected. The reason? The Hispanic vote is a huge part of the political process in most states, and it would be political suicide for anyone in Congress to support the issue, except in a few states. Without the votes, it’s not going to happen. And we think that Trump realizes this reality. Clinton, of course, would potentially expand immigration in the U.S. Since a large number of residents of mobile home parks are Hispanic in most southern states, this is a very important issue to watch, but the actual deportation of existing residents, in our opinion, is never going to happen.
Education
While free college has been a big issue on the campaign trail, it’s of little concern if you have a low income, as there are already scholarship programs in place to supplement financial restrictions. Nevertheless, there are quite a few kids in most parks, and the prospect of free college is definitely a plus for our residents, and would potentially lead to higher disposable income.
Healthcare
Don’t tell anybody, but the bottom third of Americans pay nothing for healthcare (not including those on social security), so this issue is meaningless. No matter what happens to Obamacare, virtually no mobile home park resident will pay either way. So the effect on their pocketbook is nil.
Higher minimum wage
OK, here’s one issue that has a lot of weight. But it’s both good and bad – so maybe we should consider it a draw. It’s unclear if either candidate has the ability to shape this, as it is mostly on a state level, and has already been enacted in a few states. The plus is that it gives our residents more discretionary income, as mobile home parks contain a huge number of minimum wage workers. But at the same time, there will no doubt be layoffs by many employers to offset the increase in wages. The typical fast-food establishment, in our opinion, has a budget of $X and will hit that budget if it means reducing their workforce an equal amount to offset the higher hourly rates – and don’t forget that fast food is the fastest-growing business in the U.S. since 2008. Automation will definitely increase if workers cost more. So we see some workers making more, and other workers losing their jobs.
Trade
This will have effects on all Americans, but mobile home parks tenants only slightly. If Trump is elected and enacts more tariffs on goods, it could make items you buy more expensive. But it also could cause plants to not move out of the country – some of which our residents work at – so it’s kind of a draw again.
Military
This could be an extremely large item in some markets – perhaps life and death in areas where a military base is the prime employer. It’s unclear where either candidate stands on base closure, but it’s likely to come up as a topic again. The closure and relocation of military bases would make some markets stronger and others destroyed. Always make sure in due diligence to see if the military base in your market (if there is one) has been on the closure list before. The last time base closures happened was 2005. And before that 1995. It seems to happen every 10 years. That would have been 2015 – so you know it could happen any time.
Interest rates
This is a huge topic, but it’s unclear what the effect would be of Clinton vs. Trump. The Fed sets these targets – not the President. Nevertheless, the President is an important part of the algorithm, and it appears to us that Clinton will lead to lower rates than Trump. That’s been the subject of many articles, and the coziness of Clinton and big banks seems to support this observation. Lower and stable interest rates are good for the mobile home park business – and all real estate in general.
Government subsidies
Over 50% of all Americans receive some type of social subsidy, so this is obviously a huge issue to our customers. Cutting back on subsidies would create financial hardship for our customers in many cases. And, as it’s well known, Clinton is much more into such subsidies than Trump. The recent announcement that Section 8 customers can start using their vouchers to buy mobile homes is yet another positive subsidy development for mobile home park owners.
Conclusion
While there are some key issues, many of the most talked-about campaign position stances are of little consequence to most park owners. Of the other issues, it’s unclear how much impact the President would even make. While you may watch the election with a great deal of stress, we would not have massive concerns from a mobile home park perspective. No matter whether it’s Clinton or Trump, the park business should be fine. The welfare of the nation, on the other hand, is a whole other story.